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2026 NFL Divisional Round Odds, Picks, Best Bets: Computer Model Backs Chicago Bears

The 2026 NFL playoffs have reached the Divisional Round, and the stakes couldn't be higher. After a wild-card weekend that saw underdogs go 4-2 against the spread, the remaining eight teams are now just two wins away from Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium.

SportsLine's advanced computer model has simulated every game 10,000 times, and while heavyweights like the Seahawks and Patriots are in action, the model is finding significant value in the Windy City.

2026 NFL Divisional Round Schedule & Odds

All lines via DraftKings Sportsbook; All times Eastern.

Matchup

Spread

Total

Time/TV

(6) Buffalo Bills at (1) Denver Broncos

DEN -1.5

45.5

Sat. 4:30 PM (CBS)

(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Seattle Seahawks

SEA -7

44.5

Sat. 8:00 PM (FOX)

(5) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots

NE -3

41.5

Sun. 3:00 PM (ABC/ESPN)

(5) LA Rams at (2) Chicago Bears

LAR -3.5

48.5

Sun. 6:30 PM (NBC)

Top Prediction: Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. L.A. Rams

The most intriguing line of the weekend features the Chicago Bears as home underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams. Despite being the No. 2 seed and playing at Soldier Field, Caleb Williams and the Bears are 3.5-point underdogs.

Why the model likes Chicago:

• Home Dominance: The Bears have won seven of their last eight games at Soldier Field.

• Trend Power: Chicago is a remarkable 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 home meetings with the Rams.

• The "Cold Weather" Factor: Historical data shows that home teams are 23-2 in the playoffs at covering a +3.5 spread when the temperature is below 15 degrees. With January in Chicago expected to be frigid, the Rams’ high-powered indoor offense may struggle.

• Emerging Stars: Rookie tight end Colston Loveland is coming off a massive 137-yard performance in the Wild Card round, giving Caleb Williams a reliable safety valve against the Rams' pass rush.

Game-by-Game Analysis

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

Denver enters as the No. 1 seed following a bye, but the line has tightened significantly. Buffalo is "banged up" but remains dangerous with Josh Allen. The model notes Denver is 9-1 in their last 10 home games, making this one of the toughest environments for a road team.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

The largest spread of the weekend. Seattle clinched the No. 1 seed with a Week 18 win over these same 49ers. While San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in their last five road games, the model leans toward the Seahawks' defensive consistency and the "12th Man" advantage in a night game.

Houston Texans (+3) at New England Patriots

The Texans are the hottest team in football, riding a 10-game winning streak into Foxborough. However, New England has won eight straight Divisional Round games—the longest such streak in NFL history. The model sees a tight, defensive battle, with the Under 41.5 being a strong consideration.

SportsLine’s Divisional Round Best Bets

Before you lock in any parlays or player props, the model has identified three "A-rated" picks for this weekend. One of those picks involves the total in the Rams-Bears game, which sits at a weekend-high 48.5.

The Model’s Pick: Bears +3.5 and the Under.

For more detailed analysis and the exact score predictions for every game, visit SportsLine to see the latest simulations and expert picks.